How Much Can You Earn in a VPP? Realistic Scenarios by System Size and State
If you’ve ever tried to make sense of VPP earnings, you’ll know the numbers can feel slippery. Sunshine changes with the seasons. Families change their habits. And the grid has a mind of its own. Still, patterns emerge. The heart of it is timing: exporting when electricity is scarce and prices jump.
A compact 5 kWh battery in a Brisbane townhouse behaves differently to a 13.5 kWh unit in an Adelaide family home. The smaller system leans on bill savings, trimming evening usage and chipping in during the occasional peak event. The larger system has more headroom. It can hold back a comfortable reserve, then punch out short, high‑value bursts when demand spikes.
Location matters too. South Australia’s evening peaks have a rhythm seasoned solar owners know by heart. Queensland’s summer afternoons tell a different story, with heat and humidity pushing demand in short, sharp waves. Victoria’s winter pattern is stingier with generation but generous with value when the grid is tight.
The lever you control is reserve. Set it sensibly — 30 to 40 percent is a common starting point — and live normally for a month. If you find you’re rarely dipping into backup, lower it by five percent and measure the difference. If storms are rolling in, lift it and enjoy the peace of mind. Over a year, this gentle steering tends to turn into steady credits, layered on top of the familiar savings from self‑consumption. The wins aren’t flashy. They’re cumulative, and they stick.